MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMADLARIGA INVESTITSUYALARNING TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

Sh.M. Ortiqov

Termiz davlat universiteti

B.E. Turayev

Termiz davlat universiteti

Annotatsiya. Ushbu maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida mahalliy byudjeti daromadlariga asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalarning ta’siri ekonometrik tadqiq etilgan. Natijada avtoregressiya modeli tuzish orqali qisqa va uzoq muddatli multiplikatorlar qiymatlari aniqlanib, xulosalar qilingan.

Kalit so‘zlar: model, avtoregressiya, regressiya tenglamasi, styudent, t mezoni, Fisher, instrumental o`zgaruvchi.

Mahalliy byudjet daromadlar bazasini shakllantirishda unga ta’sir etuvchi omillarning ta’sir darajasini baholash alohida ahamiyatga ega. Bunda ekonometrik modellardan foydalanish nafaqat istiqboldagi byudjet tushumlari, balki omillarning ta’sir darajalarini aniqlash imkonini beradi.

Tadqiqot uchun 2010-2023 yillardagi Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet daromadlari1 hamda asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsuyalar2 hajmi to‘g‘risida ma’lumotlar 1-jadalda keltirilgan. 1 To’rayev, B. E. (2024). Mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini ARIMA modeli asosida prognozlash. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(1), 141-149. 2 www.surxonstat.uz – Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

1-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyati kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlik ishlab chiqarish

hajmi va asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi qiymatlari3

Yillar Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet

daromadlari, mlrd so’m

Asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar,

mlrd so’m

n y x

2010 264 655,3

2011 351,6 802,9

2012 413,9 980,3

2013 514,9 1371,0

2014 571,7 1509,1

2015 699,1 1843,6

2016 835,5 2142,4

2017 969,8 3551,0

2018 1052,1 7240,6

2019 1844,7 11835,1

2020 1605,7 10068,2

2021 1993,2 12037,8

2022 2466,9 11569,4

2023* 2 962,8 17956,0

Investitsiyalarning mahalliy byudjet daromadlari hajmiga ta’sirini baholashda avtoregressiya modellari istiqboldagi qisqa va uzoq muddatli o’zgarishlar darajalarini aniqlash imkonini beradi. 𝐴𝑅(1) + 𝑥 ko’rinishidagi avtoregressiya modeli umumiy ko’rinishi quyidagicha: 3 www.surxonstat.uz – Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

𝑦𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝑏0 ∙ 𝑥𝑡 + 𝑐1 ∙ 𝑦𝑡−1 + 𝑒𝑡 (1)

Ushbu modelni hisoblash uchun dastlab instrumental o‘zgaruvchini baholovchi model tuzish talab etiladi:

𝑦̂𝑡−1 = 𝑑0 + 𝑑1 ⋅ 𝑥𝑡−1 (2)

(2) modelni baholash uchun lag o’zgaruvchilar qiymatlari 2-jadvalda berilgan.

2-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyati mahalliy byudjet daromadlari hajmi va asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi ko’rsatkichlarning 𝒕 − 𝟏 davrdagi

qiymatlari4

Yillar 𝒚𝒕 𝒙𝒕 𝒚𝒕−𝟏 𝒙𝒕−𝟏

2010 264 655,3 - -

2011 351,6 802,9 264 655,3

2012 413,9 980,3 351,6 802,9

2013 514,9 1371,0 413,9 980,3

2014 571,7 1509,1 514,9 1370,992

2015 699,1 1843,6 571,7 1509,144

2016 835,5 2142,4 699,1 1843,612

2017 969,8 3551,0 835,5 2142,412

2018 1052,1 7240,6 969,8 3551

2019 1844,7 11835,1 1052,1 7240,6

2020 1605,7 10068,2 1844,7 11835,07

2021 1993,2 12037,8 1605,7 10068,2

2022 2466,9 11569,4 1993,2 12037,76

2023 2 962,8 17956,0 2466,9 11569,4 4 Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi www.surxonstat.uz sayti

Microsoft Excel dasturining «Анализ данных» paketidan foydalanib 2- jadvaldagi ma’lumotlarning regression bog‘lanishini ko‘rib chiqamiz (3-jadval).

Regression tahlil natijalari5 й R 0,958 R-квадрат 0,917 й R-квадрат 0,910 ошибка 212,871 Регрессия 1

5539643,58

5539643,58

3 122,249

2,68616E-

498456,749

45314,2499 Итого 12

6038100,33 Y-пересечение 319,716 88,244 3,623 0,004 125,492 Переменная X 0,144 0,013 11,057 0,000 0,115 5 Muallif ishlanmasi

𝑦̂𝑡−1 instrumental o‘zgaruvchini aniqlovchi regressiya tenglamasining umumiy ko‘rinishi

𝑦̂𝑡−1 = 319,716 + 0,144 ⋅ 𝑥𝑡−1 (3)

Ushbu (3) model bo’yicha Fisherning F mezonining hisoblangan qiymati 𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑠 = 1013,663 ga teng, bu esa 𝑑𝑓1 = 𝑚 = 1 va 𝑑𝑓2 = 𝑛 − 1 − 1 = 12 erkinlik darajasida hamda, 𝛼 = 0,05 ahamiyatlilik darajasida Fisherning jadval qiymati 𝐹𝑗𝑎𝑑 = 4.75 dan katta. Shuningdek (3) modelning parametrlari bo‘yicha Styudentning t mezoni qiymatlari 𝑡𝑑0 = 2,882 hamda 𝑡𝑑1 = 10,083 ga teng, bu esa 𝛼 = 0,05 ahamiyatlilik darajasida hamda 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 𝑚 = 13 erkinlik darajasida Styudentning 𝑡𝑗𝑎𝑑 = 2,16 dan katta. Shu sababli model statistik ahamiyatga ega hisoblanadi.

𝑦̂𝑡−1 instrumental o‘zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlarini aniqlaymiz. (4-jadval).

4-jadval

Instrumental o’zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlari6 Yillar 𝒚𝒕 𝒙𝒕 𝒚𝒕−𝟏 𝒙𝒕−𝟏 𝒚̂ 𝒕−𝟏

2010 264 655,3 - - -

2011 351,6 802,9 264 655,3 413,9

2012 413,9 980,3 351,6 802,9 435,1

2013 514,9 1371,0 413,9 980,3 460,6

2014 571,7 1509,1 514,9 1370,992 516,7

2015 699,1 1843,6 571,7 1509,144 536,6

2016 835,5 2142,4 699,1 1843,612 584,6

2017 969,8 3551,0 835,5 2142,412 627,6 6 Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi www.surxonstat.uz sayti

2018 1052,1 7240,6 969,8 3551 829,9

2019 1844,7 11835,1 1052,1 7240,6 1 360,1

2020 1605,7 10068,2 1844,7 11835,07 2 020,3

2021 1993,2 12037,8 1605,7 10068,2 1 766,4

2022 2466,9 11569,4 1993,2 12037,76 2 049,4

2023 2 962,8 17956,0 2466,9 11569,4 1 982,1

4-jadvaldagi 𝑦𝑡 , 𝑥𝑡 hamda 𝑦̂𝑡−1 o‘zgaruvchilar ishtirokida (1) modelni baholadik. Buning uchun yana Microsoft excel imkoniyatlaridan foydalandik. Biroq (1) model parametrlari statistik ahamiyatga ega bo’lmadi. Shu sababli (1) modelni o’zgarmas ishtirokisiz baholadik (5-jadval).

Regression tahlil natijalari7 й R 0,990 R-квадрат 0,979 й R-квадрат 0,887 ошибка 233,097 7 Muallif ishlanmasi Регрессия 2

28341349,3

14170674,6

8 260,806

2,35521E-

597676,645

54334,2404 Итого 13 28939026 Y-пересечение 0,000 #Н/Д #Н/Д #Н/Д #Н/Д Переменная X 1 0,091 0,028 3,264 0,008 0,030 Переменная X 2 0,587 0,191 3,071 0,011 0,166

Bundan avtoregressiya tenglamamiz:

𝑦𝑡 = 0,091𝑥𝑡 + 0,587𝑦𝑡−1 (4) ko‘rinishga ega bo‘ladi. Model barcha parametrlari hamda modelning o’zi statistic ahamiyatga ega.

Shunday qilib, (4) modelga ko’ra qisqa muddatli multiplikator 𝑏0 = 0,091 ga teng, ya’ni 𝑥𝑡 - asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmining 1 mlrd so‘mga ortishi 𝑦𝑡 - mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini o‘rtacha 0,091 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi. Uzoq muddatli multiplikator 𝑏 = 𝑏𝑜

1−𝑐 = 0,091

1−0,587 = 0,22072 ga teng, ya’ni 𝑥𝑡 ning 1 mlrd so‘mga oshishi esa, 𝑦𝑡 ni uzoq muddatda 0,22072 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi.

Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar

1. Khatamov, O. K., & Shakarova, D. R. (2023). Correlation-Regression Analysis Of The Main Use Indicators Of Railway Transport. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 16(3), 3657-3662.

2. Тураев, Б. (2021). Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ доли

3. Tuychiyeva, M. K., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Trend modellari yordamida science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 193-199.

4. Фукина С.П. (2011). Трендовые модели в экономических исследованиях // Экономический анализ: теория и практика. №11.

5. Shodiyev T.Sh., Xakimov T.X., Boltaeva L.R., Ishnazarov A.I., Nurullayeva Sh., Muminova M.A. (2007). Ekonometrika: o’quv qo’llanma. – T.:

TDIU – 178 b.

6. Tulaganova, M. H., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan misolida). Technical science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 223-230.

7. Субханова, М. А., & Тураев, Б. Э. (2024). Корреляционно-

8. Solidjonovna, S. R. (2024). The role of localization of production in the

9. Safarovna K. S. et al. Surxondaryo viloyati aholi jon boshining asosiy kapitaliga o'zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmini arima modeli yordamida prognozlashtirish //Journal of Universal Science Research. – 2024. – Т. 2. – №. 2. – С. 257-266.

10. Mirzohidovna, P. M., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Surxondaryo viloyati asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan investitsiyalar hajmini trend modellari orqali modellashtirish. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(2), 296-302.

11. Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti

12. Xursanova, S. A., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Hudud dehqonchilik mahsulotlari ishlab chiqarish hajmini trend modellari yordamida prognozlashtirish. Technical science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 200-208.

13. Ortikov, S. M. (2021). Experience in statistical study and analysis of employment in foreign countries. Thematics Journal of Business Management, 10(7).

14. Norbek, N. (2022). Agrar sohada raqamli texnologiyalarni qo ‘llashning ustuvor yo ‘nalishlari. Архив научных исследований, 2(1).

15. Буранова, л. В. (2023). Повышение эффективности управления кредитными ресурсами предприятия. O'zbekistonda fanlararo innovatsiyalar va ilmiy tadqiqotlar jurnali, 2(19), 329-333.

16. Ergashevich, T. B. (2022). ISSUES OF SUSTAINABILITY OF

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDUSTRY

OF SURKHANDARYA REGION. Open Access Repository, 8(12), 426-430.

17. Mamatqulova, S. F., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Surxondaryoda to’qimachilik mahsulotlarini ishlab chiqarishni arima modeli asosida prognozlash. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(1), 307-320.

18. Mamatkulova, X. N., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlik subyektlarining sohalar bo'yicha tarkibiy o’zgarishlarini aniqlash orqali ularning rivojlanish darajasini o’rganish (Ryabsev indeksi). Oriental renaissance: Innovative, educational, natural and social sciences, 4(3), 112-116.

19. Mirzohidovna, P. M., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Surxondaryo viloyati asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan investitsiyalar hajmini trend modellari orqali modellashtirish. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(2), 296-302.

20. Субханова, М. А., & Тураев, Б. Э. (2024). Корреляционно-

21. Tulaganova, M. H., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan

misolida). TECHNICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN UZBEKISTAN, 2(2), 223-230.

22. Тураев, Б. (2021). Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ доли

23. Тураев, Б. Э. (2022). Моделирование изменения цен в промышленности строительных материалов (на примере Сурхандарьинской области). In Современные тенденции развития финансово-банковского сектора в условиях экономической неопределенности (pp. 71-75).

24. Тўраев, Б. Э., & Хатамов, О. Қ. Арима модели ёрдамида қурилиш ишлари ҳажмини прогноз қилиш (Сурхондарё вилоятида мисолида).“. UzBridge” электрон журнали, 74-84.

25. To’rayev, B. E. (2024). Mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini ARIMA modeli

26. Turaev, B. E. (2021). Forecasting the volume of construction work using the arima model (on the example of Surkhandarya region). Scientific progress, 2(2), 1287-1290.

27. Tuychiyeva, M. K., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Trend modellari yordamida science research in uzbekistan, 2(2), 193-199.

28. Xursanova, S. A., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Hudud dehqonchilik mahsulotlari ishlab chiqarish hajmini trend modellari yordamida prognozlashtirish. Technical science research in uzbekistan, 2(2), 200-208.

29. To’rayev, B. E. (2024). Mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini ARIMA modeli

30. Turaev, B. E. (2021). FORECASTING THE VOLUME OF

CONSTRUCTION WORK USING THE ARIMA MODEL (ON THE EXAMPLE

OF SURKHANDARYA REGION). Scientific progress, 2(2), 1287-1290.

31. Mamatqulova, S. F., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). SURXONDARYODA

TO’QIMACHILIK MAHSULOTLARINI ISHLAB CHIQARISHNI ARIMA

MODELI ASOSIDA PROGNOZLASH. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(1), 307-320.

32. Ibragimova, D. A., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). TURIZM SANOATINI NAZARIY TADQIQ ETISH MASALALARI. Journal of Science-Innovative Research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 530-537.

33. Mamatkulova, X. N., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). KICHIK BIZNES VA

XUSUSIY TADBIRKORLIK SUBYEKTLARINING SOHALAR BO'YICHA

TARKIBIY O’ZGARISHLARINI ANIQLASH ORQALI ULARNING

RIVOJLANISH DARAJASINI O’RGANISH (RYABSEV INDEKSI). Oriental

renaissance: Innovative, educational, natural and social sciences, 4(3), 112-116.

34. Khurramov, E. X. (2019). ROLE OF INNOVATION IN INCREASING

EFFICIENCY OF PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN

FORESTRY. Theoretical & Applied Science, (10), 518-521.

35. Khidirberdievich, A. E., & Mamadillayevich, Z. S. (2021). Issues of Regulation of Blockchains in the Digital Economy and World Experience in Reducing, Preventing the" Hidden Economy". International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding, 8(7), 591-597.

36. Allayarov, P. (2022). The factors affecting Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade: a gravity-model approach. Архив научных исследований, 4(1).

37. Ortiqov, S. M., & Mamataliyev, X. B. (2024). ECONOMETRIC

38. Khatamov, O. K., & Ortikov, S. M. (2019). USE FROM THE

39. Gulnoza, E. (2024). The status of the population's use of the stock market in Uzbekistan. Western European Journal of Linguistics and Education, 2(4), 145- 149.

40. qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kreditning mohiyati, asosiy funksiyalari va tashkil qilishning nazariy asoslari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 748-754.

41. qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kredit turlari va uning ilmiy-nazariy asoslari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 755-762.

42. qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Aholi farovonligini oshirishda kredit mablag'laridan foydalanishning ilg'or xorij tajribalari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 763-770.

43. Khassanov, F. O., Khuzhanazarov, U., Rakhimova, N., Esankulov, A., & Achilova, N. (2013). Two new species of Iris L.(Iridaceae Juss.) from Uzbekistan. Stapfia, 99, 1-3.

44. Bozorov, R. K., & Esankulov, A. E. (2019). Practice of analysis of financial stability indicators of major commercial banks in Uzbekistan. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 28(20), 873-880.

45. Hojiqulova, F. (2022). IMPROVING THE TAX SYSTEM IN OUR

COUNTRYTRAINING ISSUES. Science and Innovation, 1(7), 378-382.

46. Feruza, H., & Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). Ensuring investment activity in Uzbekistan. Synergy: Cross-Disciplinary Journal of Digital Investigation (2995- 4827), 2(4), 26-30.

47. Eshquvvatov, O. A., & Ilkhamovna, B. T. (2024). CORPORATE ECONOMICS AND INVESTMENTS. Gospodarka i Innowacje., 46, 145-148.

48. Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). ACTIVATION OF THE HUMAN FACTOR

IN THE INNOVATIVE ECONOMY. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 475-479.

49. Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). THE ROLE OF INFORMATION IN THE

IMPLEMENTATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. Multidisciplinary

Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 470-474.

50. Abdugabbarovna, D. L., & Tokhtayevich, E. S. (2024).

PECULIARITIES OF INCREASING THE INCOME OF THE POPULATION IN

THE REGION. Open Access Repository, 10(1), 74-77.

51. Abdugabbarovna, D. L., & Samandarovich, I. E. (2024).

IMPROVEMENT OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND LEGAL BASIS OF

MICROFINANCING OF SMALL BUSINESS AND PRIVATE

ENTREPRENEURSHIP. Open Access Repository, 10(1), 65-68.

52. Abdugabbarovna, D. L., & Abdurashidovich, A. O. (2024). THE ROLE

OF SMALL BUSINESS AND PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN ENSURING

THE EMPLOYMENT OF THE POPULATION AND INCREASING THEIR

INCOME. Open Access Repository, 10(1), 54-57.

53. Abdugabbarovna, D. L. (2024). PECULIARITIES OF SMALL

BUSINESS AND PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT. Open

Access Repository, 10(1), 50-53.

54. Abdugabbarovna, D. L., & Choriyevna, S. N. (2023). THE ROLE OF

INVESTMENT AND PREFERENTIAL LOANS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF

SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES. Open Access Repository, 9(11), 35-38.

55. Solijonovna, S. R. (2021). Export-oriented localization as a key factor in import substitution. World Bulletin of Social Sciences, 5, 36-39.

56. Sobitova, R. N. S. (2020). SCIENTIFIC AND THEORETICAL BASES

OF LOCALIZATION OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. Theoretical & Applied

Science, (10), 401-406.

57. Sobitova, R. N. S. (2020). LOCALIZATION OF PRODUCTION AS A

TOOL OF MODERNIZATION. Theoretical & Applied Science, (10), 407-411.

58. Solidjonovna, S. R. (2024). The role of localization of production in the

59. Solijonovna, S. R. (2023). Import Replacement-As an Assistant Mechanism for Diversification of Production and Approval of Foreign Trade.

60. Sultonov, X. G. (2022). EFFECTIVENESS OF ATTRACTING

INVESTMENTS IN IMPROVING THE ECOLOGICAL CONDITION OF

IRRIGATED LANDS. Экономика и социум, (4-1 (95)), 56-60.

61. Алтиев, А. С., Очилов, И. С., & Султонов, Х. Ғ. (2021). GLOBAL

EXPERIENCES IN IMPROVING THE ECONOMIC MECHANISMS OF

IRRIGATED LAND IMPROVEMENT. Экономика и социум, (6-1), 418-426.

62. Allayor o’g’li, X. R. (2023). GLOBALLASHUV SHAROITIDA

HUDUDNING EKSPORT SALOHIYATINI YANADA TAKOMILLASHTIRISH

YO'NALISHLARI. Journal of Universal Science Research, 1(6), 799-803.

63. Allayor o‘g‘li, X. R. (2023). HUDUDNING EKSPORT

SALOHIYATINI STATISTIK TADQIQ QILISH VA EKONOMETRIK

MODELLASHTIRISH (SURXONDARYO VILOYATI

MISOLIDA). O'ZBEKISTONDA FANLARARO INNOVATSIYALAR VA ILMIY

TADQIQOTLAR JURNALI, 2(20), 753-755.

64. Norqobilov, N. (2020). The role of foreign investment in the development of the economy of Kashkadarya region. Business Expert, 1, 145.

65. Norqobilov, N., & Abdullayev, J. (2023). Specific features of solving the housing problem in our country in the context of economic reforms. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 3(2), 21-23.

66. Norqobilov, N., & Rasulov, F. (2023). THE ROLE OF SOCIAL

PROTECTION IN IMPROVING THE LIVING WELL-BEING OF THE

POPULATION. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 3(2), 24-25.

67. Norkobilov, N. N. (2021). Structure and features of expanding investment in the southern region of uzbekistan. Asian Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, 11(11), 704-709.

68. Mukhammadiyevich, O. S. (2023). Experiences in the study and analysis of population employment in foreign countries. International Multidisciplinary Journal for Research & Development, 10(12).

69. Muhammadiyevich, O. S. (2023). Main problems of population employment and ways to solve them. American Journal of Science on Integration and Human Development (2993-2750), 1(4), 10-13.

70. Ismatov, S. A., & Ortikov, S. M. (2020). The population bandhini tamines, turmus of regine oshirildi humiliation tagirova and using Uzbekistana characteristic.(foreign experience in providing employment, improving well-being and its specifics for uzbekistan). Theoretical & Applied Science, (11), 521-526.

71. Khatamov, O. K., & Ortikov, S. M. (2019). USE FROM THE

72. Хатамов, О., & Ортиков, Ш. (2019). Аҳоли бандлигини таъминлаш моделлари ва ундан Ўзбекистон шароитида фойдаланиш имкониятлари. Экономика и инновационные технологии, (4), 48-59.

73. Ortiqov, S. M., & Mamataliyev, X. B. (2024). ECONOMETRIC