YASHIRIN IQTISODIYOTNI QISQARTIRISHDA FISKAL INSTRUMENTLARNING SAMARADORLIGINI OSHIRISH YO‘LLARI

mazkur maqolada O‘zbekistonda yashirin va norasmiy iqtisodiyotni qisqartirishga qaratilgan fiskal siyosat 2017-2026-yillar kesimida, rasmiy statistik ma’lumotlar hamda normativ-huquqiy islohotlar asosida baholangan. Tadqiqotning muhim metodologik jihati shundan iboratki, “jami norasmiy va yashirin iqtisodiyot” ko‘rsatkichi bilan soliqqa tortilmaslik maqsadida ataylab berkitilgan “yashirin iqtisodiyot” komponenti qat’iy ajratildi; shu sababli keng ko‘rsatkichdagi pasayish avtomatik ravishda soliqdan qochish komponentining xuddi shunday qisqarganini anglatmasligi isbotlandi. Uzilishli vaqt qatori modeli, dekompozitsiya, tarmoq tahlili va fiskal natijalar matritsasi 2017-yildan keyin keng kuzatilmaydigan iqtisodiyot ulushi sezilarli kamayganini, biroq xizmatlar sohasidagi tor ma’nodagi yashirin faoliyat barqaror yuqori qolayotganini ko‘rsatdi. Natijalarga tayangan holda riskga asoslangan “aqlli” nazorat, elektron fiskallashtirishning tarmoqlar bo‘yicha differensial dizayni, naqd pulsiz to‘lovlarni rag‘batlantirish, soliq intizomi indekslari va hududiy formalizatsiya kontraktlarini joriy etish bo‘yicha takliflar ishlab chiqildi.

This article assesses the fiscal policy aimed at reducing the shadow and informal economy in Uzbekistan for the period 2017-2026, based on official statistical data and regulatory and legal reforms. An important methodological aspect of the study is that the “total shadow and informal economy” indicator strictly excludes the “shadow economy” component, which is deliberately hidden in order to avoid taxation; therefore, it is proven that a decrease in the broad indicator does not automatically mean a similar decrease in the tax evasion component. The discontinuous time series model, decomposition, network analysis and fiscal outcome matrix showed that the share of the shadow economy decreased significantly after 2017, but the narrowly defined shadow activity in the services sector remained consistently high. Based on the results, proposals were developed for risk-based "smart" control, differential design of electronic fiscalization by sector, promotion of cashless payments, tax discipline indices, and the introduction of territorial formalization contracts.