MAHALLIY BYUDJET DAROMADLARIGA INVESTITSUYALARNING TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

TA’SIRINI BAHOLASH.

L.A. Djurayeva

Termiz davlat universiteti

Nabixonova Durdona Xamid qizi

Termiz davlat universiteti talabasi

Annotatsiya. Ushbu maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida mahalliy byudjeti

daromadlariga asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalarning ta’siri ekonometrik

tadqiq etilgan. Natijada avtoregressiya modeli tuzish orqali qisqa va uzoq muddatli

multiplikatorlar qiymatlari aniqlanib, xulosalar qilingan.

Kalit so‘zlar: model, avtoregressiya, regressiya tenglamasi, styudent, t mezoni,

Fisher, instrumental o`zgaruvchi.

Mahalliy byudjet daromadlar bazasini shakllantirishda unga ta’sir etuvchi

omillarning ta’sir darajasini baholash alohida ahamiyatga ega. Bunda ekonometrik

modellardan foydalanish nafaqat istiqboldagi byudjet tushumlari, balki omillarning

ta’sir darajalarini aniqlash imkonini beradi.

Tadqiqot uchun 2010-2023 yillardagi Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet daromadlari1

hamda asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsuyalar2 hajmi to‘g‘risida ma’lumotlar 1-

jadalda keltirilgan.

1-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyati kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlik ishlab chiqarish

hajmi va asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi qiymatlari3

Yillar Surxondaryo viloyati byudjet

daromadlari, mlrd so’m

Asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar,

mlrd so’m

n y x

1 To’rayev, B. E. (2024). Mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini ARIMA modeli asosida prognozlash. Journal of Universal

Science Research, 2(1), 141-149.

2 www.surxonstat.uz – Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

3 www.surxonstat.uz – Surxondaryo viloyat Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti ma’lumotlari.

2010 264 655,3

2011 351,6 802,9

2012 413,9 980,3

2013 514,9 1371,0

2014 571,7 1509,1

2015 699,1 1843,6

2016 835,5 2142,4

2017 969,8 3551,0

2018 1052,1 7240,6

2019 1844,7 11835,1

2020 1605,7 10068,2

2021 1993,2 12037,8

2022 2466,9 11569,4

2023* 2 962,8 17956,0

Investitsiyalarning mahalliy byudjet daromadlari hajmiga ta’sirini baholashda

avtoregressiya modellari istiqboldagi qisqa va uzoq muddatli o’zgarishlar darajalarini

aniqlash imkonini beradi. 𝐴𝑅(1) + 𝑥 ko’rinishidagi avtoregressiya modeli umumiy

ko’rinishi quyidagicha:

𝑦𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝑏0 ∙ 𝑥𝑡 + 𝑐1 ∙ 𝑦𝑡−1 + 𝑒𝑡 (1)

Ushbu modelni hisoblash uchun dastlab instrumental o‘zgaruvchini baholovchi

model tuzish talab etiladi:

𝑦̂𝑡−1 = 𝑑0 + 𝑑1 ⋅ 𝑥𝑡−1 (2)

(2) modelni baholash uchun lag o’zgaruvchilar qiymatlari 2-jadvalda berilgan.

2-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyati mahalliy byudjet daromadlari hajmi va asosiy kapitalga

o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmi ko’rsatkichlarning 𝒕 − 𝟏 davrdagi

qiymatlari4

Yillar 𝒚𝒕 𝒙𝒕 𝒚𝒕−𝟏 𝒙𝒕−𝟏

2010 264 655,3 - -

2011 351,6 802,9 264 655,3

2012 413,9 980,3 351,6 802,9

2013 514,9 1371,0 413,9 980,3

2014 571,7 1509,1 514,9 1370,992

2015 699,1 1843,6 571,7 1509,144

2016 835,5 2142,4 699,1 1843,612

2017 969,8 3551,0 835,5 2142,412

2018 1052,1 7240,6 969,8 3551

2019 1844,7 11835,1 1052,1 7240,6

2020 1605,7 10068,2 1844,7 11835,07

2021 1993,2 12037,8 1605,7 10068,2

2022 2466,9 11569,4 1993,2 12037,76

2023 2 962,8 17956,0 2466,9 11569,4

Microsoft Excel dasturining «Анализ данных» paketidan foydalanib 2-

jadvaldagi ma’lumotlarning regression bog‘lanishini ko‘rib chiqamiz (3-jadval).

Regression tahlil natijalari5

4 Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi www.surxonstat.uz sayti

5 Muallif ishlanmasi

Регрессионная статистика

ый R 0,958

R-квадрат 0,917

ый R-квадрат 0,910

ошибка 212,871

df SS MS F Значимос

ть F

Регрессия 1

5539643,5

5539643,5

83 122,249

2,68616E-

498456,74

45314,249

Итого 12

6038100,3

Y-пересечение 319,716 88,244 3,623 0,004 125,492

1 0,144 0,013 11,057 0,000 0,115

𝑦̂𝑡−1 instrumental o‘zgaruvchini aniqlovchi regressiya tenglamasining umumiy

ko‘rinishi

𝑦̂𝑡−1 = 319,716 + 0,144 ⋅ 𝑥𝑡−1 (3)

Ushbu (3) model bo’yicha Fisherning F mezonining hisoblangan qiymati 𝐹ℎ𝑖𝑠 =

1013,663 ga teng, bu esa 𝑑𝑓1 = 𝑚 = 1 va 𝑑𝑓2 = 𝑛 − 1 − 1 = 12 erkinlik darajasida

hamda, 𝛼 = 0,05 ahamiyatlilik darajasida Fisherning jadval qiymati 𝐹𝑗𝑎𝑑 = 4.75 dan

katta. Shuningdek (3) modelning parametrlari bo‘yicha Styudentning t mezoni

qiymatlari 𝑡𝑑0 = 2,882 hamda 𝑡𝑑1 = 10,083 ga teng, bu esa 𝛼 = 0,05 ahamiyatlilik

darajasida hamda 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 𝑚 = 13 erkinlik darajasida Styudentning 𝑡𝑗𝑎𝑑 = 2,16 dan

katta. Shu sababli model statistik ahamiyatga ega hisoblanadi.

𝑦̂𝑡−1 instrumental o‘zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlarini aniqlaymiz. (4-jadval).

4-jadval

Instrumental o’zgaruvchining nazariy qiymatlari6

Yillar 𝒚𝒕 𝒙𝒕 𝒚𝒕−𝟏 𝒙𝒕−𝟏 𝒚̂ 𝒕−𝟏

2010 264 655,3 - - -

2011 351,6 802,9 264 655,3 413,9

2012 413,9 980,3 351,6 802,9 435,1

2013 514,9 1371,0 413,9 980,3 460,6

2014 571,7 1509,1 514,9 1370,992 516,7

2015 699,1 1843,6 571,7 1509,144 536,6

2016 835,5 2142,4 699,1 1843,612 584,6

2017 969,8 3551,0 835,5 2142,412 627,6

2018 1052,1 7240,6 969,8 3551 829,9

2019 1844,7 11835,1 1052,1 7240,6 1 360,1

2020 1605,7 10068,2 1844,7 11835,07 2 020,3

2021 1993,2 12037,8 1605,7 10068,2 1 766,4

2022 2466,9 11569,4 1993,2 12037,76 2 049,4

2023 2 962,8 17956,0 2466,9 11569,4 1 982,1

6 Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi www.surxonstat.uz sayti

4-jadvaldagi 𝑦𝑡, 𝑥𝑡 hamda 𝑦̂𝑡−1 o‘zgaruvchilar ishtirokida (1) modelni

baholadik. Buning uchun yana Microsoft excel imkoniyatlaridan foydalandik. Biroq (1)

model parametrlari statistik ahamiyatga ega bo’lmadi. Shu sababli (1) modelni

o’zgarmas ishtirokisiz baholadik (5-jadval).

Regression tahlil natijalari7

Регрессионная

статистика

ый R 0,990

R-квадрат 0,979

ый R-квадрат 0,887

ошибка 233,097

df SS MS F Значимост

ь F

Регрессия 2

28341349,3

14170674,6

8 260,806

2,35521E-

597676,645

54334,2404

Итого 13 28939026

7 Muallif ishlanmasi

Y-пересечение 0,000 #Н/Д #Н/Д #Н/Д #Н/Д

1 0,091 0,028 3,264 0,008 0,030

2 0,587 0,191 3,071 0,011 0,166

Bundan avtoregressiya tenglamamiz:

𝑦𝑡 = 0,091𝑥𝑡 + 0,587𝑦𝑡−1 (4)

ko‘rinishga ega bo‘ladi. Model barcha parametrlari hamda modelning o’zi statistic

ahamiyatga ega.

Shunday qilib, (4) modelga ko’ra qisqa muddatli multiplikator 𝑏0 = 0,091 ga

teng, ya’ni 𝑥𝑡 - asosiy kapitalga o‘zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmining 1 mlrd so‘mga

ortishi 𝑦𝑡- mahalliy byudjet daromadlarini o‘rtacha 0,091 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi. Uzoq

muddatli multiplikator 𝑏 = 𝑏𝑜

1−𝑐 = 0,091

1−0,587 = 0,22072 ga teng, ya’ni 𝑥𝑡 ning 1 mlrd

so‘mga oshishi esa, 𝑦𝑡 ni uzoq muddatda 0,22072 mlrd so‘mga oshiradi.

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